A CBS News/YouGov poll finds a close Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with the result carrying implications for Senate control.
CBS put Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49% among likely voters. The two-point gap is smaller than the poll’s 3.5-percentage-point margin of error for likely-voter results, so it does not establish a leader. CBS surveyed 1,492 registered voters from Oct. 8-16.
CBS identified turnout as a key indicator and noted that younger voters have historically cast ballots at lower rates. Turnout, particularly among younger voters, could affect how closely the election result matches the poll’s likely-voter estimate.
The state’s Republican lean favors Paxton, CBS said, while voters’ economic concerns and views of the candidates’ character favor Talarico. The same survey’s character findings showed that 59% of likely voters said Paxton did not have the right personal character to serve as senator. For Talarico, the figure was 45%.
Inside Elections rated the Republican-held seat a toss-up on Oct. 15. Democrats need four net gains to take control of the Senate, making Texas one of the contests that could contribute to that target.
In-person early voting began Oct. 19 and runs through Oct. 30 under Texas’ election calendar. Election Day is Nov. 3.
