A CBS News model estimates Democrats at 229 House seats in the 2026 midterms, as voters concerned about inflation mostly back the party and turnout remains uncertain.
The CBS News/YouGov survey interviewed 2,355 U.S. adults on Oct. 21-23, 2026. The reported margin of error was 2.6 percentage points for the full sample, 2.9 points among registered voters and 3.0 points among likely voters. CBS said potential outcomes could reach into the 230s, while a Republican hold on the chamber remains possible but limited.
The seat figure is a model projection, not a count of votes. CBS said its calculation also draws on prior voting behavior and district and demographic profiles, and that further information could shift the projection.
CBS reported that Democrats were favored among respondents who considered inflation very important and among those who said prices had been difficult to manage or had become a hardship. More than seven in 10 Democratic voters said they meant their congressional vote to oppose President Donald Trump. The report also said Trump motivates Republican voters.
The survey found limited confidence in either party’s governing agenda. Four in 10 Democratic voters said their party lacked a clear plan, and no party was seen by a majority as having one. A separate Politico poll, covered earlier by EconoTimes, found 48% of Democratic voters named opposition to Trump as their main reason for voting.
An AP-NORC poll conducted Oct. 8-12, 2026, found 80% of adults placed lowering living costs among the next Congress’ top priorities. It surveyed 1,119 adults and reported a 3.9-point margin of sampling error. The result measures a policy priority, not party preference or what drove CBS’ seat estimate.
Pew Research Center reported that household essentials were also a leading economic concern before the 2022 midterms. Turnout is another uncertainty: CBS found greater stated voting certainty among Democrats, while Republicans were stronger among people who said they would probably or maybe vote. The Federal Election Commission lists the midterm election for Nov. 3, 2026.
