The long-awaited Erdogan and Basci meeting conveyed the common message of maintaining "confidence" and "stability", which has given the market the hope of easing political tension on the CBT in the near term. The CBT gov…
The long-awaited Erdogan and Basci meeting conveyed the common message of maintaining "confidence" and "stability", which has given the market the hope of easing political tension on the CBT in the near term.
The CBT governor Basci's presentation, which was posted on CBT's website following the meeting, hints that a cautious monetary policy stance will be adopted in the near term.
The presentation makes an implicit reference to the need for a cautious easing/policy stance for FX stability. The CBT has made the point that "looser monetary policy" led exchange rate depreciation and the subsequent high inflation as a result of exchange pass-through.
In addition, the significance of maintaining "confidence" and "stability" to anchor risk premium lower and bolster investment was explicitly mentioned in the presentation.
Barclays says as follows:
We expect the Central Bank of Turkey to remain on hold next week, keeping all policy rates unchanged, ahead of the March FOMC meeting.
In our view, the tone of the accompanying MPC statement will likely be relatively cautious as well.
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