Most respondents to two surveys expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged this week, while the polls differ on whether it will raise rates in December, putting the Fed’s year-end path in focus.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policy-setting body, meets Oct. 27–28. The survey results measure respondents’ expectations and do not determine the committee’s decision.
CNBC reported that 93% of 30 fund managers, strategists and economists it surveyed expected no change at this week’s meeting. Another 76% anticipated a December increase. CNBC published the results Oct. 27 but did not state when it gathered responses. More than half of respondents also expected additional rate increases in 2027, averaging about two.
Views on this week’s decision were not unanimous: 30% of CNBC respondents said the Fed should raise rates, and respondents expected at least two FOMC voters to dissent if the committee held rates steady.
Reuters’ Oct. 16–20 poll of 100 economists found 94 expected the Fed to keep its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at the October meeting. All 100 anticipated a December increase. The polls covered different respondent groups, and CNBC did not disclose its field dates, so their collection periods cannot be compared.
The Fed’s unanimous Sept. 16 vote raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. In the minutes from the Sept. 15–16 meeting, most participants judged another increase would probably be warranted before year-end. The minutes separately said officials would reassess policy as new information arrived.
The poll findings echo a forecast by ING economist Philip Marey covered earlier by EconoTimes, which anticipated an October hold followed by a December increase. The Fed’s meeting is scheduled to conclude Wednesday, Oct. 28; its next session is Dec. 8–9, when new economic projections are due.
