Close congressional contests in California and Alaska could remain uncalled after Nov. 3 because ballots still to be counted may be numerous enough to overturn an election-night lead.
The Cook Political Report classifies California’s 22nd House district and Alaska’s Senate contest as toss-ups. It rates California’s 13th and 48th House districts Lean Democratic. Those ratings describe competitiveness before voting, rather than the time a count might take.
The Associated Press (AP) weighs the lead against the votes that may remain before declaring a winner. Its call can come before election officials certify the result, but only when the trailing candidate has no path to overtake the leader.
California allows mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to reach counties through Nov. 10. Election workers must also check signatures and process provisional ballots. County certification is due Dec. 3, and California’s statewide certification is scheduled for Dec. 11.
California permits counties to start processing mail ballot envelopes as early as 29 days ahead of Election Day. Still, the California Voter Foundation estimated that about 26% of ballots in 2024 were returned on or after voting day. It found that 66% of California ballots were counted within two days that year, compared with 81% in 2004.
The foundation identifies late mail returns, verification steps, staffing and facilities as contributors to lengthy counts. California’s 2026-27 budget assigns counties $29 million to accelerate counting and support election integrity. Another $10 million goes to counties and the California secretary of state for voter outreach, including efforts to encourage earlier ballot returns.
Alaska’s election calendar lists Nov. 18 for the final regional count of absentee and questioned ballots and targets Nov. 25 for certification. The state completed its final 2024 ballot count and ranked-choice tabulation 15 days after that election. Its schedule does not by itself establish when the Senate race can be called; the lead and the ballots remaining will matter under AP’s standard.
California counties are scheduled to start reporting after polls close at 11 p.m. ET on Nov. 3. Those initial totals and later county updates on outstanding ballots could help show whether the remaining vote can change a lead.
