Central Europe's inflation is close to bottoming out
With oil prices stabilizing at around USD 60/bbl, the passthrough to fuel-price inflation is expect to end this quarter. This is also signaled by PMI sub-indices for input and output prices. The only unknown is the pace …
With oil prices stabilizing at around USD 60/bbl, the passthrough to fuel-price inflation is expect to end this quarter. This is also signaled by PMI sub-indices for input and output prices.
The only unknown is the pace of reflation: despite good domestic demand growth and closing output gaps, second-round effects from supply-side shocks are still weighing on core inflation.
Unicredit notes in a report on Tuesday:
Inflation is expected to turn positive in 4Q15 in Hungary and Poland and stay well below target this year in the Czech Republic and Romania.
All Central European central banks face the risk of inflation rising faster than they project at the moment, but the risk of overshooting targets by a large margin or for a long period is limited.
In Russia and Turkey, the risks are that inflation will overshoot official estimates.
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