China hard landing risks remain

Several individual economies appear at risk (and notably Russia and Brazil), but the risk that a strong dollartriggers a systemic crisis as modest with a probability of 10%.
 
Societe Generale notes...

• On China, we have revised up our probability of hard landing back to 30%, but this links to the domestic reform efforts and the government push to reduce moral hazard. 
  
  
• The currency factor is less of an issue when it comes to China.