China's economy expanded 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter, topping a Reuters poll forecast even as property investment fell sharply and the statistics bureau cited weak domestic demand.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) said Oct. 19 that growth accelerated from 4.3% in the second quarter. The Reuters poll had forecast 4.4%. GDP rose 1.2% from the previous quarter, following a 0.9% increase in April through June; the poll had projected a 1.1% quarterly gain.
The 4.5% rate compares the third quarter with a year earlier, while the 1.2% figure compares it with the preceding three months. Both measures were higher than in the second quarter.
For January through September, preliminary NBS estimates put GDP growth at 4.6% from a year earlier, measured at constant prices. GDP totaled 107,107.1 billion yuan at current prices over that period.
The government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026. The nine-month reading was within that range, though the target applies to the full year.
Investment remained weak. Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households fell 7.2% from a year earlier over January through September, while real estate development investment declined 20.6% over the same period. The NBS said demand within China remained a significant weakness.
September retail sales rose 1.1% from a year earlier, after a 0.4% increase in August. Industrial output at enterprises above the designated size threshold grew 5.5% from a year earlier in September, following 5.2% growth in August.
Goods exports increased 16.4% from a year earlier over the first nine months, reaching 23,197.9 billion yuan.
The NBS calendar schedules its next manufacturing purchasing managers' index release for 9:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 30 (01:30 UTC on Oct. 31). The bureau says the release date may change.
