China’s old-age dependency ratio reached 23.1% in 2025, exceeding the child ratio for the first time as Reuters reported a fourth straight annual population decline and a record-low birth rate.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data put the 2025 child ratio at 22%, compared with 23.1% for the older group. The data counted more than 223 million people aged 65 and older, against about 213 million children aged 14 and younger.
The old-age measure compares the population aged 65 and over with the working-age population. It was 15% in 2016, moved above 20% by 2021 and reached 23.1% in 2025.
Reuters said China’s birth rate has been falling for decades, linking the trend to the one-child policy that ran from 1980 to 2015 and to rapid urbanization. It also reported steps to encourage marriage and childbearing that include financial aid for families, childcare services and reduced medical costs related to childbirth. Officials also promised to improve urban conditions for young people and families with children, Reuters reported.
