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China's GDP for 2015 likely to be 6.8%, more RRR cuts to come till H1 16

China's November official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6, slightly below the market consensus expectations of 49.8. Looking all over, the subdued PMI readings indicate weakness in underlying pace of  the country's growth in fourth quarter of the year.

The positive developments in consumption growth and services sector might not be solid enough to support the growth momentum.

"In particular, we expect total investment to continue to moderate in the next two quarters. The weakening economy is also reflected by the decline in industrial profits in October (-2.0% y/y YTD), led by the SOEs. As a result, we expect weak growth of 6.6% y/y in Q4, ...our GDP growth forecasts 2015: 6.8%; 2016: 6.0%", says Barclays in a research note. 

The growth weakness and increasing deflationary forces also suggest more easing in the months to come. There is a risk of another 25 bp  rate cut in December, given the motnhly economic indicators deteriorate above expectations.

"We also continue to expect a RRR cut in December due to our expectation of continued capital outflows. Looking into 2016, we maintain our forecast of two benchmark rate cuts and two more RRR cuts in H1 16", added Barclays.

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