China HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI (02.45 BST, Monday) fell from 49.6 to 49.2 in April, according to the flash estimate. This suggests that seasonal effects were not the sole cause of the recent weakness. Although the official PMI for April (released on Friday 1st) came in at 50.1, unchanged from March, the index has not been a particularly reliable guide to trends in industry over the past few months.
Capital Economics says - "We do not expect the final reading to differ from the flash for the Markit index. We think the trade surplus (Friday) should have rebounded strongly in April."
Export growth is likely to have jumped last month as distortions caused by the late timing of Chinese New Year ought to have faded. Meanwhile, import growth probably stayed negative, as commodity prices are lower than a year ago and demand for commodities remains subdued due to slowing investment growth.
