Commerzbank's forecast completed Sept. 18 puts the euro at $1.18 in the fourth quarter of 2027, while FXStreet reported that an analyst linked recent currency weakness partly to France's fiscal outlook.
Commerzbank's public forecast table lists EUR/USD at $1.15 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $1.18 for the fourth quarter of 2027. The table uses market data marked Sept. 17, and the report says it was completed Sept. 18. The bank said its expected euro gains partly reflected pressure on the dollar from concerns about Federal Reserve independence.
FXStreet reported Oct. 20 that Commerzbank FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen viewed broad dollar gains as a driver of the euro's September decline, with France's public finances adding pressure from early October. The report also said Nguyen saw possible support for the euro if energy markets eased.
The European Central Bank (ECB) reference rate went from $1.1652 per euro on Sept. 9 to $1.1177 on Oct. 7, before rising to $1.1253 on Oct. 16. The ECB describes these as daily informational rates, not live transaction prices.
France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) reported that the 2025 general-government deficit totaled €152.5 billion, or 5.1% of gross domestic product, while public debt reached 115.7% of GDP at year-end. Commerzbank said Oct. 5 that the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields had reached 140 basis points, its widest since 2012. The bank linked investor concerns to the deficit and the government's lack of political majorities.
In an Oct. 16 report, Commerzbank forecast a gradual decline in energy prices and said that could ease pressure on European industry and financial markets. The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28, and the ECB's next policy meeting concludes Oct. 29.
