Commerzbank Research said Middle Eastern crude exports are recovering, but freight and insurance costs and limited refined-fuel supplies could delay relief for European businesses and households even if oil prices ease.
Commerzbank Research authors Dr. Vincent Stamer and Norman Liebke wrote in an Oct. 16 note that prices could move toward $85 a barrel by the end of 2026 if exports continued to rise. The note cited futures at $104 a barrel. It said the prospect of further attacks was sustaining an added risk premium in oil prices.
Commerzbank put late-September crude flows, including shipments routed through Yanbu and Fujairah, near their prewar level. The International Energy Agency (IEA) used a different measure: It estimated Gulf producers averaged 13.9 million barrels of crude exports per day in September, up 4.4 million barrels per day from August and slightly above 75% of prewar levels.
Shipping costs remain high, according to Commerzbank. The bank put the daily rate for a large tanker traveling from the Arabian Sea to China at $900,000, compared with $100,000 at the beginning of 2026. It estimated added transport costs at $20 to $30 per barrel, with higher costs in exceptional cases, and cited insurance and personnel risk premiums as well as scarce oil products.
The IEA estimated Middle Eastern refined-product shipments averaged 1.9 million barrels per day in September, against 4.7 million barrels per day before the war. The agency said high diesel prices were raising the cost of goods and weighing on real incomes, while Commerzbank said lower energy prices could ease costs for European industry.
Commerzbank said its Sept. 11 analysis had anticipated a gradual recovery in Gulf exports and that its October note described that scenario as developing. The bank expects earlier energy costs to filter into other prices, delaying a noticeable decline in inflation until mid-2027.
Eurostat recorded euro-area inflation of 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August, as energy prices rose 18.9% from a year earlier. Eurostat is scheduled to publish its flash estimate for October inflation on Nov. 4.
