Copper prices are up 15.8% in 2026, CNBC reported, while a global surplus forecast contrasts with Reuters’ account of tariff-driven U.S. stockpiling and tighter availability elsewhere.
CNBC also reported that gold futures had fallen 4.11% year to date. Reuters reported Oct. 14 that tariff expectations had encouraged traders to move copper into U.S. warehouses, where holdings exceeded 1 million metric tons. The outlet said the concentration had tightened supply in other markets.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a refined-copper surplus of about 104,000 metric tons in 2026 and 368,000 in 2027. It projects world apparent refined-copper usage will rise 1.5% in 2026, with data centers and the energy transition supporting demand, while limited copper-concentrate supplies constrain refined output. The ICSG cautions that unreported stocks and unforeseen disruptions can change its global balance forecast, which does not settle how much metal is available in each region.
Ivanhoe Electric CEO Taylor Melvin told CNBC that copper costs are unlikely to decide whether a large technology company builds a data center. He also cited defense budgets as another source of demand, and said technology-sector valuations could fall even as industries using copper continue to grow.
Iain Pyle, senior investment director at Aberdeen Investments, told CNBC that Chinese inventories looked exceptionally low and premiums were rising. He said U.S.-held copper may not be available to the rest of the market, and assessed that prices could pull back around a tariff announcement even as he views underlying fundamentals as bullish.
Minera Centinela announced an agreement ending its 10-day strike Oct. 18; copper slipped Oct. 19.
A 2025 White House proclamation recorded the Commerce Department’s recommendation for a 15% refined-copper import tariff starting Jan. 1, 2027, rising to 30% on Jan. 1, 2028, if imposed. No final decision has been announced. The ICSG lists its next meetings for April 2027.
