Current-coupon mortgage-backed securities yields fell to 5.93% on Nov. 6, their lowest since Sept. 9, while the municipal-bond market continued recovering and most AAA muni-Treasury ratios returned to end-of-August levels.
Housing economist Tom Lawler provided the figures in an update Bill McBride published Monday on CalculatedRisk.
The MBS yield was 50 basis points below its high for the year, recorded Oct. 5. Its 2026 low was 4.81% at the end of February. The current-coupon MBS-Treasury spread narrowed by about six to seven basis points over the week. Both the spread and implied rate volatility declined, though each remained elevated relative to most 2026 readings.
Most AAA municipal-bond-to-Treasury ratios on Nov. 6 had returned to end-of-August levels after rising sharply in September. The exception was among the longest maturities: those ratios had eased slightly from end-of-September levels but remained above their end-of-August readings.
The update adds to EconoTimes’ earlier analysis of models linking much of the Treasury yield rise to rate expectations. Lawler’s note uses month-end readings from January 2022 through October 2026; the November observation is for Nov. 6.
