Democrats lead three October polls of U.S. House voting intentions as voters focus on living costs, though close Senate races leave control of Congress unresolved before Nov. 3.
The latest, a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Oct. 16-19, found 47% of registered voters backing Democratic congressional candidates and 35% backing Republicans. In the same poll, 47% said the cost of living mattered most to their congressional vote.
Earlier polls pointed in the same direction but sampled different groups. Economist/YouGov, polling Oct. 10-12, found Democrats ahead 46%-39% among people registered or planning to register. A Fox News survey of registered voters conducted Oct. 9-12 found a 54%-45% split. Differences in the questions and voter groups mean the three margins should not be read as a single trend.
Economic concerns also appeared in the Economist/YouGov results: 22% cited inflation as the country’s most important problem, while 12% cited the economy. Asked to compare how they felt about life now with 10 years earlier, 48% said they were less optimistic.
National House polling cannot establish how individual districts will vote. Fox News’ Oct. 13 Power Rankings placed Democrats ahead in 219 districts, Republicans ahead in 198 and 18 contests in the toss-up category. Those figures are the outlet’s assessments of the races.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats hold 45, and two independents caucus with them, so a net gain of four would give Democrats and their allies 51 seats. Fox News rated 47 Senate seats as favoring each side and six as toss-ups.
Fox News polls of likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 showed narrow leads in two state contests. Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 51%-49% in the Texas Senate race, while Democrat Josh Turek led Republican Ashley Hinson 49%-47% in Iowa. Both gaps were within the polls’ stated margins of error of three percentage points.
The chambers moved in different directions in 2018: Democrats rose from 194 to 235 House seats, while Republicans’ Senate total grew from 51 to 53. In a Pew Research Center survey, 55% of adults expected Democrats to win the House. Expectations for the Senate were divided, with 48% anticipating Republican control and 46% Democratic control. Voters will decide both chambers on Nov. 3.
