Democrats are trying to turn leads in a New York Times/Siena poll covering seven states into the four-seat net gain needed for chamber control as voters choose senators in 35 contests on Election Day.
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) lists 35 Senate contests for Nov. 3. The chamber has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, putting the Democratic-aligned bloc at 47 seats. Vice President JD Vance can break a tie, so Democrats need to reach 51; that requires four net gains from their current position.
The stakes extend across seven states where the New York Times/Siena survey found Democratic candidates in front. Siena Research Institute released the poll Nov. 1, two days before Election Day.
The narrowest differences were in Alaska and Iowa. Mary Peltola led Dan Sullivan 48% to 46% in Alaska, while Josh Turek led Ashley Hinson 48% to 47% in Iowa. Siena put the margins of sampling error at ±5.0 percentage points in Alaska and ±4.7 in Iowa, wider than each candidate’s lead.
The poll also showed Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins 51% to 45% in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers 53% to 42% in Michigan. Sherrod Brown led Jon Husted 49% to 44% in Ohio, James Talarico led Ken Paxton 50% to 43% in Texas, and Adam Hamilton led Roger Marshall 49% to 44% in Kansas; David Graham received 4% in Kansas.
Siena Research Institute Executive Director Don Levy cautioned that the results did not settle control of the chamber, saying “a Senate majority for either party remains possible.”
The Associated Press identified Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska as states Democrats are targeting. It said early returns from North Carolina and Georgia could offer clues to the wider Senate contests.
The Senate contest is part of the broader midterm fight for control of Congress, with voters casting ballots Tuesday, Nov. 3.
