Democrats won both chambers in the Nov. 3 midterms, an outcome Nate Silver had rated very differently in January 2025: 85% for a House win and 15% for a Senate win.
Silver wrote that prediction markets put the Democrats’ House prospects at 70%. He estimated their chances higher, pointing to the Republicans’ narrow majority, the historical tendency for the president’s party to lose ground in midterm elections and his expectation that Democratic voters would turn out.
Silver also assigned Democrats a 10% chance of gaining House control before the midterms through special elections or party switches. He cited recent congressional history, in which an average of 1.6 special elections had switched party control. For the Senate, he identified Maine and North Carolina as clear Democratic opportunities but said he could not find a third.
For the 2028 election, Silver gave Democrats a 55% chance of winning the presidency. He said prediction markets treated the race as an even bet, while his own estimate reflected expected anti-incumbent effects and the absence of a Republican nominee who could run as a term-limited President Donald Trump. He also noted the possibility of a conservative shift over the medium term. Silver put the chance of Democrats winning the presidency and controlling both chambers of Congress at 40%, saying that scenario would involve winning three of four obvious Senate pickup opportunities.
His other forecasts included a 60% chance that Mike Johnson would remain House speaker through Nov. 3, 2026, and an 85% chance of at least one new Supreme Court vacancy during the 119th or 120th Congress. Silver cited the ages of Alito and Thomas, along with recent shifts in political control, as reasons a justice might retire at a politically opportune time.
Silver put the chance of a third party becoming a significant factor in the 2028 race at 20%. His definition was at least 15% of the popular vote at some point after Labor Day, rather than a final election result.
Silver said the 113 predictions were an exercise in estimating probabilities without relying on his election and sports models, and a way to show readers his assumptions. The post covered subjects including the economy, immigration, foreign policy, constitutional limits, Cabinet turnover, and Elon Musk and Silicon Valley.
