Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) expects Russian hybrid operations against NATO and Western countries to intensify, while assessing that the possibility of a limited attack on a NATO member has increased.
In its Sept. 24 assessment, DDIS described the risk of a limited military strike against a NATO country as still low, with the threat moving upward. It regarded an invasion as improbable, while saying it remained a possibility.
Denmark’s Security and Intelligence Service (PET) said Sept. 5 that it had detected Russian planning and preparatory activity for sabotage inside Denmark, particularly involving defense companies and firms linked to military support for Ukraine. PET reported no information pointing to an imminent attack at a defined place or time. It assessed that one aim could be to halt specific supplies to Ukraine and create fear and insecurity in Western societies.
At a June 18-19 meeting, the European Council said a Russian drone carrying explosives had struck a residential building in Romania on May 29, and condemned repeated airspace violations. It called for stronger protection of critical infrastructure and greater capacity to prevent, deter and respond to hybrid attacks.
Germany’s Federal Government attributed an attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport on Aug. 4 to Russia, citing police investigations, the attack pattern and intelligence findings. It said criminal investigations and legal proceedings were still open. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen separately said Germany had identified Russia in connection with an attempt to attack cargo planes at the airport.
Germany’s announced measures included the closure of Russia’s consulate in Bonn, effective Sept. 18, ending the operating arrangement for the Russian House in Berlin, tighter entry checks for Russian citizens and increased pressure on Russia’s shadow fleet.
A Financial Times report published Oct. 11 described alleged Russian plans targeting senior figures in Europe’s defense industry, citing officials from five European intelligence agencies. The reported plans have not been publicly confirmed by named intelligence agencies or official documents reviewed for this article.
The Council of the European Union extended restrictive measures against people and entities it said were responsible for Russia’s destabilizing actions until Oct. 9, 2027. It said the measures applied to 80 individuals and 20 entities.
