October inflation and Federal Reserve comments reinforced December rate-increase expectations, while a later Reuters snapshot put the dollar index at 102.4, up 0.2% and near a two-week high Wednesday. The report did not specify a time zone for the market reading. Reuters also reported the euro at $1.114, the pound down 0.2% to $1.332 and the yen down 0.1%, while the Australian dollar gained 0.1%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.4% in October from the previous month, following September's 0.6% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%. Food prices increased 0.5%, and the shelter index rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in all items. A lapse in appropriations prevented collection of October 2025 survey data, so the BLS did not publish an October 2026 year-over-year rate.
In a Nov. 10 speech before the CPI release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said a half-point December increase should be considered if core inflation was around 0.3% or higher. That threshold matched readings in each of the two prior months, Waller said; he otherwise leaned toward a quarter-point increase.
At its Oct. 28 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack favored a quarter-point increase. EconoTimes previously covered expectations for a December Fed hike and their dollar implications.
Reuters reported that traders had fully priced a quarter-point December increase and saw only a slim chance of a half-point move. It also cited LSEG data indicating close to 75 basis points of cumulative increases by September 2027. These are market estimates reported by Reuters, not commitments from the Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee calendar lists its next meeting for Dec. 8-9, and the BLS schedule sets the November CPI release for Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
