On the inflation front, energy and food prices are now materially lower while the tradeweighted euro has strengthened. The ECB assumes unchanged exchange rate and oil prices in line with market futures reduce the inflation outlook this year to 0% and to 0.8% next, from 0.2% and 1.2% respectively, notes Barclays.
The ECB will release its updated quarterly macroeconomic forecasts, including inflation. The central bank projected the inflation rate at 0.3% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 1.8% for 2017 in June.
"We think 2015 and 2016 projections will be revised down to take stock of changes in oil prices and the exchange rate since the last round of forecasts in June: since then, the euro has appreciated by around 6% and the price of Brent crude oil in USD is down around 30%", argues Barclays.
