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Today European Central Bank (ECB) is to provide further guidance in policy meet. Result to be announced at 11:45 GMT, followed by press conference at 12:30 GMT. Meeting is to be held in Frankfurt.
Current policy measures-
- Deposit facility rate at -0.20 percent
- Refinancing rate 0.05 percent
- Marginal lending facility rate at 0.30 percent
- ECB started its asset purchase program of € 60 billion from this month.
- ECB has indicated front loading the purchase, which means more bond buying in summer and adjust later on.
Expectation today -
- No change in monetary policy is expected today, however press conference is very vital, since it is the first after bond rout, front loading announcement and Greek final proposal.
What to watch out for -
- Changes in growth and inflation forecast as hard data are improving across board. Most pivotal would be ECB's view on inflation. Higher forecast might strengthen yields further.
- How concerned ECB is over rapid rise in European bond yields and if it's have an impact on policy decisions.
- How unanimous ECB board is since inflation is rising.
- ECB's view on liquidity in the market and recent extremely high volatility.
- ECB's view on Euro, since it is up almost 700 pips from its low.
- ECB's stance on Greece and insight on the latest proposal prepared by ECB, IMF and EU in collaboration.
- ECB's view on current list of reforms sent by Greek government.
Impact -
- Major focus will be on Euro and the Euro zone bonds. Euro is trading at 1.113, up over the Greek news.
- Euro would be bearish if Draghi once again shrugs off all recent bond rout and assures ECB's commitment to the program and talks of more tools.
- However, Euro might turn bullish, if press conference indicate increasing debate over the purchase program and earlier wind up or any modification to purchase. However this is still seems unlikely.
Overall Euro is likely to maintain bullish bias and focus beyond ECB, on Greek proposal.
Euro is currently trading at 1.113, key support stands at 1.102 area and resistance around 1.12-1.123.
