Consumers raised their expectations for inflation over the next year to 3.1% in September, while their economic growth outlook worsened, the European Central Bank said in survey results published Oct. 23.
The central bank said its “ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2026” showed the median inflation expectation rose from 3% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead held at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
The survey covered consumers’ perceptions over the previous year and expectations for the year ahead, alongside longer-term inflation expectations. Respondents also assessed income, spending, employment, housing and access to borrowing, the central bank said.
Consumers expected the economy to shrink 1.5% over the next 12 months, compared with an expected 1.2% contraction in August, the central bank said. Their expected unemployment rate a year ahead rose to 11.3% from 11%.
The central bank said consumers put the current unemployment rate at 10.6%, only slightly below their expectation for the year ahead. It interpreted that gap as indicating a broadly stable outlook for the labour market.
Consumers’ median estimate of inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%, the central bank said. Uncertainty about inflation over the coming year increased slightly and stayed above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.
The central bank said the lowest-income fifth of respondents continued to perceive and expect higher inflation, on average, than the highest-income fifth. Respondents aged 18 to 34 reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than those aged 35 to 70.
Expected income growth before adjusting for inflation rose to 1.1% from 1%, the central bank said. Expectations averaged 1.5% among the lowest-income fifth and 1.2% among the highest-income fifth.
Consumers estimated their spending had risen 5.3% over the previous year, up from 5.2% in August, the central bank said. They expected spending to rise 3.7% over the coming year, up from 3.6%, without adjusting either measure for inflation.
The lowest-income households expected unemployment of 13.6% a year ahead, compared with 9.7% among the highest-income households, the central bank said.
Consumers expected their homes to gain 3.5% in value over the next year, up from 3.4% in August, the central bank said. The lowest-income fifth expected a 4% increase, compared with 3.2% for the highest-income fifth.
Expected mortgage rates a year ahead stood at 4.9%, unchanged from July, the central bank said. Expectations ranged from 4.4% among the highest-income households to 5.7% among the lowest-income households.
The balance of households reporting harder access to credit over the previous year increased from August, the central bank said. The balance expecting borrowing conditions to tighten over the next year also rose.
