Higher crude prices could add as much as one percentage point to India’s inflation through diesel and logistics costs, EY India energy leader Gaurav Moda told ANI.
ANI reported that Moda tied a roughly 45%-50% increase in India’s crude import bill to crude averages moving from $60-$65 per barrel to $90-$95. The report did not specify the periods or benchmark for that comparison. It also gave no forecast horizon, inflation measure or calculation assumptions behind his inflation estimate.
The Indian crude basket averaged $82 per barrel in July 2026, $90.2 in August and $116.1 in September, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Oct. 7 policy statement, citing Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data.
India’s crude import dependence, measured against petroleum, oil and lubricants consumption, was about 88% in each of FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25 and FY 2025-26, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said in an answer to Parliament. The ministry also reported that public-sector enterprises bought crude from 41 countries. It linked import dependence partly to rising demand associated with economic growth, urbanization, transport and industry, as well as declining output from mature oil and gas fields. The sourcing and dependence figures suggest that a wider supplier pool coexists with continued exposure to global prices; that is an inference from the ministry’s data.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported that consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 5.54% year over year in September, provisionally, while food inflation was 7.74%. The RBI projected inflation of 5.2% for FY 2026-27 and cited volatile international oil prices as a near-term risk. The September figures do not isolate crude’s contribution to inflation.
ANI also reported Moda’s view that oil marketing companies’ margins were under pressure because they were not passing the full crude-price increase to consumers. He said higher petrol spending could weigh on household disposable income and savings.
The October CPI release is scheduled for Nov. 12. The RBI’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for Dec. 2-4.
