Bill McBride of the CalculatedRisk newsletter reported a 13.7% year-over-year October sales decline across a small group of U.S. housing markets before seasonal adjustment, providing an early reading before Thursday’s national report.
The same markets posted a 5.2% drop from a year earlier in September, McBride reported. October new listings fell 4.9% year over year after rising 1% in September, while active inventory grew 4.3%, up from 2.2% growth the previous month.
McBride said the national seasonally adjusted decline may be milder than the local comparison because October had 21 working days in 2026, compared with 22 in 2025. He also cited other seasonal factors.
October transactions largely reflected contracts reached in August and September, when average mortgage rates were 6.67% and 6.86%, respectively, McBride wrote. He expects October’s higher rates to weigh on completed sales in November.
McBride said existing-home sales for 2026 appeared likely to reach their lowest level since 1994, though the national October figure had not yet been reported. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) was scheduled to release its October report Thursday, Nov. 12. McBride cited a consensus forecast of 3.87 million sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 3.99 million in September.
