The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Emerging and Developing Asia to grow faster than the world economy through 2027, even as growth increasingly depends on a smaller set of economies.
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook projects the region will expand 5.1% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027. Its global output forecasts are 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively. Emerging and developing economies overall are projected to grow 3.7% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, compared with 2.1% and 1.8% for advanced economies.
Forecasts for individual Asian economies vary. China is projected to grow 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, while Indonesia’s forecast is 5.1% for both years. Vietnam is projected to expand 8.4% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027. India’s forecast is 7.0% in each year on a fiscal-year basis; using calendar years, the IMF projects 7.4% growth in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027.
The October outlook assigns 95% of expected global growth to 32 economies, compared with 54 economies in the IMF’s April outlook. About 47% of economies had their forecasts lowered. The figures point to a concentration of projected growth even as the global total rises.
The IMF links differences in countries’ prospects partly to their exposure to the Middle East conflict and energy-price shock, as well as their roles in technology supply chains. It sees data-center demand and the wider technology cycle supporting some Southeast Asian economies. Energy importers with limited ties to technology value chains face the most difficult outlook, while energy exporters outside the conflict zone may benefit from favorable terms of trade.
The report says it is uncertain whether AI-related investment will translate into stronger long-term productivity. It also projects global trade volume growth of 4.6% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, following 5.0% in 2025. The IMF points to tariffs and shifts in sourcing and production, alongside continued strength in technology-related trade.
The October outlook was published Oct. 13 and uses information available through Oct. 1, 2026.
