Ethereum Price Eyes $3,000 as Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop

Ethereum price briefly climbed above $2,700 on September 30 after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted sentiment across crypto markets. However, ETH quickly surrendered part of those gains and traded near $2,679 as investors weighed declining Federal Reserve rate hike expectations against renewed Ethereum ETF outflows.

August U.S. PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% market forecast. Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the weaker reading suggests price pressures are cooling and could reduce the need for additional monetary tightening.

The CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting falling to 34%. Prediction market odds also declined from 67% to 34%. Lower expectations for higher interest rates can support risk assets such as Ethereum because less restrictive monetary policy typically improves investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.

Despite the favorable macro backdrop, institutional demand showed signs of weakening. SoSoValue data indicated that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $2.81 million in net outflows on September 29, ending a seven-day inflow streak and marking their first daily outflow since September 18.

Nevertheless, Ethereum ETFs accumulated approximately $892 million in net inflows during September, extending their monthly inflow streak to three consecutive months.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum remains above its 200-day exponential moving average at $2,462, an important long-term support level. ETH is now confronting resistance around $2,816. A sustained close above that level could strengthen bullish momentum and open a potential move toward the psychological $3,000 mark.

The Awesome Oscillator also shows growing green bars, indicating improving bullish momentum. However, Ethereum remains vulnerable to broader macroeconomic pressure. If risk assets face renewed selling, ETH could retreat toward $2,500 support.

For now, Ethereum price remains caught between improving Fed rate expectations and softer ETF demand, with the $2,816 resistance level likely to be closely watched by traders.