Euro area final September manufacturing PMI to be slightly up

The final manufacturing PMIs of euro area for September should remain close to flash estimates with the expectation being a slight increase in the Eurozone figure from 52.0 to 52.3 (52.3 in August) thus mirroring the resilience observed in the European Commission survey. 

France is set to increase slightly from the flash estimate of 50.4 to 50.6. Meanwhile, a strong an increase in Italy is expected from 53.8 in August to 54.3 in September, whereas the Spanish manufacturing PMI is expected to fall from 53.2 to 52.0, says Societe Generale.

Despite these upward revisions it should be noted that, compared to past cyclical recoveries, confidence in the manufacturing sector is struggling to take off. This likely reflects weaker Chinese import demand, heightened uncertainty (Greece) and insufficient progress on reforms. Looking ahead, the PMIs are expected to hover around current levels in the coming months, added SocGen.