Euro area industrial output to fall following German slump

Following the published drops in IP for Germany, Spain and the Netherlands, along with several others, industrial output in the euro area as a whole is expected to have weakened slightly in August with the models indicating a fall of -0.5% mom. This would correspond with a 1.9% rise yoy wda. 

These projections are based on available country data which accounts for over 90% of euro area IP, with most countries showing a mom drop. The picture isn't entirely uniform, though, with a 1.6% mom increase seen in France as production bounced back after a weak July print. 

"Despite the overall drop there would still be weak momentum with a carryover of +0.1% for Q3 if our forecasts are correct and assuming a constant profile in September", notes Societe Generale.