Market Roundup
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 213K, 214K forecast, 214K previous.
• Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Jan): -1.0%, -0.6% forecast, 1.8% previous.
• Canada Building Permits MoM (Jan): 4.8%, -2.0% forecast, 6.1% previous.
• Canada Trade Balance (Jan): -3.65B, -1.10B forecast, -1.30B previous.
• US Trade Balance (Jan): -54.50B, -66.60B forecast, -72.90B previous.
• US Housing Starts MoM (Jan): 7.2%, 4.8% previous.
• US Building Permits (Jan): 1.376M, 1.420M forecast, 1.455M previous.
• US Housing Starts (Jan): 1.487M, 1.340M forecast, 1.387M previous.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,850K, 1,850K forecast, 1,871K previous.
• US Exports: 302.10B, 286.30B previous.
• US Imports: 356.60B, 359.20B previous.
• US Goods Trade Balance: -80.80B, -98.50B previous.
• Canada Exports (Jan): 62.48B, 65.55B previous.
• Canada Imports (Jan): 66.13B, 66.85B previous.
• US Building Permits MoM (Jan): -5.4%, 4.8% previous.
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 212.00K, 215.00K forecast, 216.00K previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 15:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.640% previous.
• 15:00 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.630% previous.
• 15:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous.
• 15:00 US 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.750% previous.
• 15:00 US Fed Balance Sheet: 6,629B previous.
• 15:00 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: 3.014T previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors gravitated toward the liquidity and safety of the U.S. dollar, while avoiding currencies of major energy-importing economies such as Japan and much of Europe. The shift in sentiment came amid a sharp rise in oil prices, which climbed above $100 a barrel after Iran intensified attacks on oil and transportation facilities across the Middle East, heightening fears of supply disruptions and worsening inflation pressures.Energy markets remained volatile despite efforts to calm supply concerns. The International Energy Agency announced plans to release 400 million barrels of crude from its strategic reserves the largest coordinated release in its history. As part of the effort, the United States said it would begin releasing 172 million barrels from its reserves starting next week. However, investors showed limited confidence that these measures would fully offset potential disruptions to global oil supply.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1670(March 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1509(March 9th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1459(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as concern about a lasting rise in energy prices and nervousness about the war in the Middle East drove.As oil and natural gas prices have surged, so have investor expectations for inflation. Sterling, which has fallen by just 0.7% since the outbreak of the war on February 28, is one of the better-performing currencies among those belonging to economies that rely heavily on imported energy.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was due to speak later on Thursday, a week before the central bank's rate-setting meeting.The pound was last down 0.2% on the day against the dollar at $1.3386 and weakened against the euro, which rose 0.1% to 86.3 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3118(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3125(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as rising risk aversion across global markets drove investors toward the safety of the U.S. dollar. Sentiment weakened further after the administration of Donald Trump launched a new trade investigation on Wednesday into excess industrial capacity among 16 major trading partners, raising concerns about potential trade tensions and their impact on global growth.Geopolitical risks also intensified after Iranian strikes reportedly hit oil tankers near Iraq, heightening tensions in the Middle East and adding to market uncertainty. Energy markets reacted sharply to the developments, with Brent crude surging more than 9% amid fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf region.Despite the risk-off tone, expectations for tighter monetary policy in Australia have strengthened. Markets now imply roughly a 79% probability of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on March 17. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.70176(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7194(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7075(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6981(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Thursday as the dollar strengthened as surging oil prices raising inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood that central banks may adopt more hawkish policy stances.Oil rose for a second day as fears of a prolonged Iran war outweighed a coordinated reserve release by the International Energy Agency, which approved a record 400 million-barrel release. Meanwhile, weak yen has significantly raised the cost of imports for Japanese businesses, particularly energy and commodities priced in dollars. These higher import costs are a key factor contributing to inflationary pressures in Japan.Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and other government officials are currently engaged in budget discussions in the Japanese parliament, known as the National Diet of Japan, which may partly explain the lack of immediate reaction to currency movements. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.46(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks were lower in afternoon on Thursday as oil prices briefly climbed back above $100 a barrel amid ongoing shipping disruptions linked to the Iran war.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.68 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices jumped on Thursday as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, raising fears of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures climbed $6.41, or 7%, to $98.45 a barrel by 1235 GMT, having hit $100 per barrel in earlier trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $5.98, or 6.85%, at $93.23.
Gold prices held nearly steady on Thursday as safe-haven demand was offset by a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations for interest-rate cuts.
Spot gold was little changed at $5,183.39 per ounce by 9:11 a.m. ET (1311 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 0.2% at $5,190.50.
