FXStreet reported that Commerzbank economist Dr. Vincent Stamer expects euro-area core inflation to top 3% by fall 2027, putting the energy-cost pass-through debate at the center of the European Central Bank’s outlook.
FXStreet said the model used data through Oct. 16 and projected headline inflation just below 4% in coming months. The report linked Stamer’s core inflation outlook to companies passing higher energy costs on to customers. It also said he expects the ECB to raise rates again in December, a forecast rather than a central bank decision.
Eurostat reported that annual inflation reached 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Energy inflation accelerated to 18.9% from 14.3%. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose to 2.5% from 2.4%; services inflation increased to 3.2%, while non-energy industrial goods inflation eased to 1.1%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an Oct. 17 statement that energy costs could affect food prices and inflation excluding energy over time. She said the bank had not observed a substantial effect on other prices or wages beyond what its projections already account for, and that wages had not materially adjusted.
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, effective Sept. 16. Its September staff projections put the 2027 annual average for inflation excluding energy and food at 2.6%. That measure and annual average are not directly comparable with Stamer’s reported forecast for fall 2027. EconoTimes previously reported euro-area inflation reaching 3.8% in September as energy prices rose 18.9%.
The ECB’s next policy decision is scheduled for Oct. 29. Eurostat is due to publish its October inflation flash estimate on Nov. 4, ahead of the ECB’s Dec. 17 meeting.
