Gold’s September decline did not stop fund and central-bank buying, while FXStreet reported OCBC strategists lowered their year-end forecasts and still saw near-term pressure from rates and the dollar.
FXStreet reported Nov. 2 that OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong now expect bullion to finish 2026 at $4,250 an ounce and 2027 at $4,710. The outlet said both estimates were reduced. OCBC’s public October commentary offers a broader view of the market but does not give those price targets.
In that commentary, Christopher Wong, executive director and FX strategist at OCBC Group Research, described a longer-term case for gold while saying the near-term outlook remains exposed to borrowing costs and the U.S. dollar. OCBC linked September’s higher oil prices to greater inflation concerns, which coincided with elevated Treasury yields. A firmer dollar added to the pressure on gold, the bank said.
Gold ended September at $4,176 an ounce, down 8.5% from August, the World Gold Council reported. Despite the decline, global gold exchange-traded funds took in $10 billion, or 67 tonnes, that month. The council also said China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, added 23 tonnes in September, bringing its third-quarter purchases to 63 tonnes.
The council said UK-listed gold funds attracted 54 tonnes in the third quarter, compared with about 18 tonnes projected by its model. Its analysis contrasted the current rise in yields across markets with the UK-specific 2022 gilt-market episode.
FXStreet also attributed to the strategists a warning that weakness in AI-related shares could trigger wider deleveraging and gold sales, and a view that a December rate increase remained OCBC’s baseline. EconoTimes previously covered related OCBC concerns in an earlier report on gold deleveraging.
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28. Two committee members favored a quarter-point increase. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the next meeting for Dec. 8-9.
