FXStreet reported that OCBC strategists see EUR/USD possibly falling below $1.10 in the first half of 2027, with France’s fiscal outlook adding to risks for the euro.
FXStreet attributed the outlook to OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong. It said their view allows for a euro recovery in the second half, but gave no specific level for that rebound or a more precise time when the pair might cross below $1.10.
OCBC’s Nov. 2 Daily Treasury Outlook lists EUR/USD at 1.1160 under “Day Close.” The table provides neither a time zone nor a timestamp. A reading below 1.10 would mean the euro was worth less than $1.10.
The strategists’ dollar outlook includes competing forces. FXStreet said they view artificial intelligence as supportive of U.S. growth overall, while AI-related stress could tighten financial conditions. If that happened, markets might question how far the Federal Reserve could tighten, the outlet reported. The strategists also cited higher energy prices as an inflation risk and said potential currency-management efforts in China and Japan could limit further dollar gains.
The second-half scenario is linked to a change in the U.S. growth outlook: the strategists expect AI’s contribution to growth to cool after the first half of 2027. FXStreet said that could ease pressure for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The outlet did not specify how far EUR/USD might fall below $1.10 or the level it could reach in a recovery.
FXStreet said the strategists also pointed to French fiscal concerns ahead of the country’s 2027 presidential election. Agence France Trésor’s ratings table lists France at Aa3 with a negative Moody’s outlook, dated Oct. 23, 2026. The rating is an official data point; its implications for the euro are the strategists’ assessment, as reported by FXStreet.
