FXStreet alone reported Tuesday that TD Securities expects the dollar near 18 pesos by the end of 2026, a level that would imply a stronger peso than Banco de México’s latest reference rate.
Banco de México’s Nov. 9 FIX was 18.5983 pesos per dollar. FIX is derived from wholesale-market quotations, so it serves as a benchmark rather than a continuously updated trading price. Because the figure counts pesos for each U.S. dollar, a lower rate indicates a stronger peso.
FXStreet attributed the forecast to interest-rate carry and valuation, and reported a range of 18.00 to 18.40 pesos per dollar for 2027. The outlet also cited a move toward 19 pesos by 2028 but did not specify when that year.
Banco de México lowered its overnight target by 25 basis points to 6.25%, effective Nov. 6, in the rate cut covered earlier by EconoTimes. The central bank described the reduction as a “one-time adjustment.” Its Governing Board said keeping the rate at its new level for an extended period would support inflation’s convergence with its target. The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28. Mexico’s higher policy rate is relevant to the carry case, but policy targets alone do not show the return an investor will realize.
Mexico’s consumer prices rose 3.75% year over year in October, up from 3.45% in September, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). INEGI published the figures Nov. 9. Banco de México said the peso had depreciated since its previous policy decision and listed further depreciation as an upside risk to inflation.
Banco de México is scheduled to publish the minutes of its latest meeting on Nov. 19 and a quarterly report on Nov. 26. Its next rate decision is set for Dec. 17.
