FXStreet said Kit Juckes of Societe Generale saw room for AUD/USD to fall, pointing to weak Australian data that included record quarterly declines in new investor home-loan commitments.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a seasonally adjusted total of 111,878 new dwelling-loan commitments in the September quarter, 15% fewer than in the previous quarter. Their value fell 15.5% to A$81.157 billion, the steepest quarterly decrease since the series began in September 2002.
Investor commitments accounted for the sharpest decline. Their number fell 30.6% to 35,301 and their value dropped 32.3% to A$24.705 billion; the ABS said both decreases set quarterly records. Owner-occupier commitments fell 5.3% to 76,578.
National Australia Bank’s October survey, published Nov. 10, showed business confidence down one point to -15 index points. Business conditions also slipped one point, to -2 index points, while forward orders fell 11 points to -12.
In its November report, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) described rising government bond yields across advanced economies, including Australia. Its trade-weighted measure put the Australian dollar about 5% above its level at the start of 2026.
The RBA put new housing commitments 27% below their November 2025 high. It said the contraction outpaced most tightening cycles since 1990, although the equivalent stage of the 2022 cycle saw a larger decline. The bank associated weaker housing prices and lending with tighter monetary policy and recent changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, which it said fit with lower after-tax returns on investments in established housing.
FXStreet reported that Juckes favored exposure to Australian interest rates over a short position in AUD/USD. He also argued that rising global bond yields were weighing on leveraged property markets, including Australia.
The ABS has scheduled its next lending-indicators release, covering the December quarter, for Feb. 10, 2027, at 11:30 a.m. AEDT (0030 UTC).
