Societe Generale analysts expect the margin from buying U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and delivering it to Europe to approach zero around December 2028, FXStreet reported, after damage to Qatar’s export facilities.
Analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem had expected that threshold in early 2027 before the Middle East conflict, according to FXStreet. Their forecast concerns the potential gain from trading LNG between the two markets. It does not mean gas prices in the United States and Europe would become identical.
QatarEnergy said strikes on March 18 and 19 damaged two LNG production trains at Ras Laffan whose combined annual capacity is 12.8 million tons, roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG exports. The strikes also damaged a Pearl gas-to-liquids train. QatarEnergy estimated that damage across the affected facilities would reduce its revenue by $20 billion a year.
In a March 24 market notice, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some long-term LNG contracts affecting customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that combined LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates dropped by 35 billion cubic meters from March through June 2026 compared with the same months a year earlier. Higher production elsewhere replaced roughly three-quarters of the lost volume.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) attributed a 23% rise in total U.S. LNG exports in the first half of 2026 to added export capacity. Those exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day. The agency said high international prices encouraged terminals to operate near maximum output.
QatarEnergy President and CEO Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi said in September that repairing the two damaged LNG trains would take three years. The IEA expects projects already under construction to add about 90 billion cubic meters of annual LNG export capacity in 2028, the peak year for additions in its tracker. It places the first train of Qatar’s North Field East expansion no earlier than the first half of 2027.
