The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are scheduled to announce policy decisions from Oct. 28 to 30, putting inflation and growth signals at the center of a week for global borrowing costs. No decision had been announced as of Oct. 25.
The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16. Minutes from that meeting show most participants thought policymakers might need to lift rates again before the year ended. The minutes also identified geopolitical energy shocks and demand tied to artificial intelligence as risks to inflation. Some participants said rising energy bills were squeezing the spending power of low- and moderate-income households.
The Fed’s statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) Wednesday, Oct. 28, followed by a news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (18:30 UTC). The Associated Press reported Oct. 23 that Wall Street expected the Fed to hold rates and leaned toward a December increase. Bloomberg Economics senior economist Anna Wong expects the Fed to stay on hold through year-end, Bloomberg reported.
The ECB announced a 25-basis-point increase on Sept. 10, effective Sept. 16, setting its deposit rate at 2.50%, main refinancing rate at 2.65% and marginal lending rate at 2.90%. It cited inflation pressures linked to the Middle East conflict and said it would assess future rate moves as conditions develop. A Reuters poll found 70 of 73 economists expected the ECB to keep its deposit rate unchanged on Oct. 29; 64 of 73 expected a 25-basis-point increase in December.
The BOJ meets Oct. 29–30. Its schedule lists the policy statement and October Outlook Report for Friday, Oct. 30, without a release time. On Sept. 18, the BOJ set its overnight call-rate guideline at around 1.25% in a 7-2 vote, effective Sept. 24.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release its advance estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product and September personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC) Thursday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated annualized third-quarter growth at 3.5% in an Oct. 20 update; the bank describes GDPNow as a continuing model calculation, not an official forecast. Eurostat’s preliminary third-quarter GDP estimate is also due Thursday, while preliminary October Tokyo-area consumer price data are scheduled for Friday.
