Polymarket trader FhantomBets said professional traders gave President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a 30% to 40% chance to win before he won Brazil’s Oct. 25 runoff.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported that Lula received 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79% of valid ballots. Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro received 59,826,041 votes, or 48.21%. The count gave Lula a fourth presidential term, as EconoTimes reported in its coverage of the runoff result.
FhantomBets said retail bets against Lula had helped raise Bolsonaro’s market chances. CoinShares senior researcher Luke Nolan said the divide between professional and retail traders was not enough on its own to explain Polymarket’s pricing.
