Finnish Navy commander Rear Adm. Tuomas Tiilikainen told Sky News that NATO’s Baltic Sea patrols appear to be having an effect, but urged continued vigilance as Russia monitors allied activity.
Tiilikainen described conditions at sea as tense but stable. He said Russia may see no need to increase its naval presence in the Baltic, or its forces may have reached the limit of what they can sustain in peacetime. He said Russia’s navy closely watches NATO operations.
“Most probably the deterrence has worked today,” Tiilikainen said in the interview. He linked that assessment to allied patrols and public attention on Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels. Traffic by those vessels has remained steady.
A NATO military official told Sky News that allied warships are believed to outnumber Russian military vessels in the Baltic Sea by about four to one. The official said the usual minimum ratio is three to one.
NATO launched Baltic Sentry in January 2025 after suspected sabotage involving undersea cables and power lines. The mission uses ships and aircraft to increase surveillance of critical infrastructure.
Tiilikainen identified an accident involving a shadow fleet vessel as the region’s biggest risk. He specifically warned that an aging tanker could run aground and raised concerns about crews’ professionalism. Sky News reported that Russian patrols protecting shadow fleet vessels also place demands on its aging warships and crews.
