Fitch has affirmed Abu Dhabi’s AA rating with a stable outlook and forecast a 2026 budget surplus of 7.1% of GDP, including investment income from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Gulf News reported Sunday.
The rating action covers Abu Dhabi’s long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating. The Gulf News account said Fitch cited the emirate’s fiscal position and high GDP per capita, along with substantial external assets and comparatively low government debt.
The surplus estimate includes investment income from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Fitch expects oil production gains to lift government revenue faster than spending. Its projections show the surplus growing further in 2027, then easing in 2028 as oil prices fall. The agency’s baseline uses Brent crude prices of $70 a barrel in 2027 and $60 in 2028, according to Gulf News.
The report put Abu Dhabi’s net sovereign foreign assets at about 300% of GDP at end-2025. Government debt was 19.3% of GDP that year, compared with a 46.5% median for AA-rated peers, Gulf News said.
Fitch also expects Abu Dhabi’s non-oil economy to expand through 2026, with public investment, support measures and consumer spending contributing. Some surplus funds are expected to go toward long-term projects by government-related entities and to increase deposits at local banks.
The agency’s forecast has real GDP growth reaching 15.1% in 2027, as hydrocarbon output rises and infrastructure projects by government-related entities add support, the outlet reported. Fitch also assessed Abu Dhabi’s banks as resilient amid regional tensions, citing available liquidity and capital buffers.
