Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro held a narrow polling edge over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva before Brazil’s runoff, with the final survey placing the candidates within its margin of error.
Datafolha’s final poll, reported by Folha, surveyed 4,050 voters in 124 municipalities on Oct. 23-24. It put Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, a gap within the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error. In total vote intentions, Bolsonaro had 48% and Lula 47%, while blank or null votes accounted for 3% and 2% were undecided. A previous Datafolha poll from Oct. 20-22 showed the candidates tied at 50% each of valid votes. That marked a one-point increase for Bolsonaro and a one-point decrease for Lula from the previous poll.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported Flávio with 47.03% of valid votes and Lula with 45.16% in the Oct. 4 first round, based on a count with 99.99% of voting machines tallied at the time of its report. The two advanced to the runoff after finishing first and second. The TSE said first-round abstention was 21.08%.
Saturday’s campaign events spanned several cities. The Guardian reported Lula appeared in Rio’s Copacabana area, while Poder360 reported Flávio attended a morning event in Belo Horizonte before his closing rally in Rio’s Barra da Tijuca. Folha reported Lula’s campaign sought to mobilize voters who had skipped the first round.
TV Globo held the final debate Friday in Rio, moderated by journalist César Tralli. Globoplay lists the full broadcast runtime as one hour, 57 minutes.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive presidential term after serving from 2003 to 2010 and returning to office for a third term, according to the TSE. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator making his first presidential run. The Guardian reported that each Brazilian president elected in a runoff during the democratic era had led after the first-round vote.
Brazil’s runoff is Sunday, Oct. 25.
