Flavio Bolsonaro Leads Lula 49%-45% in Brazil Runoff Poll

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro holds a narrow lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of the October 25 presidential runoff election, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday. However, the results indicate that the closely contested race remains statistically tied.

The latest survey showed Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, receiving 49% voter support, compared with 45% for Lula. Despite the four-percentage-point difference, Datafolha classified the result as a technical tie because the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The findings represent the first Datafolha survey conducted since Brazil's first-round presidential election on Sunday, when the younger Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished ahead of the incumbent president.

The first-round outcome brought renewed attention to Brazil's political landscape, setting the stage for a competitive runoff between two candidates representing different political traditions.

According to the survey, 5% of respondents said they intended to cast blank ballots, while another 1% remained undecided. These figures highlight the presence of voters who have not committed to either candidate as the country approaches the final round of voting.

Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people in person between October 6 and October 7, providing an updated snapshot of voter preferences following the initial election results.

The narrow polling gap underscores the uncertainty surrounding Brazil's presidential election, with both candidates seeking support ahead of the decisive October 25 vote.

Flavio Bolsonaro's performance has attracted attention because of his connection to former President Jair Bolsonaro, whose political influence remains an important factor in Brazilian politics. Meanwhile, Lula is seeking to maintain his presidency amid a competitive electoral environment.

Although the senator currently leads in the survey's headline figures, the margin of error means the poll does not establish a clear advantage for either candidate.

With the presidential runoff approaching, the latest Datafolha findings suggest that Brazil's election remains closely contested. The final result will depend on ballots cast on October 25 rather than the current polling figures.