Flavio Bolsonaro Surges as Family Scores Brazil Election Comeback

Brazil’s election delivered a dramatic political comeback for the Bolsonaro family, even though former President Jair Bolsonaro was not on the ballot.

Bolsonaro, 71, is under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence over a coup plot following his 2022 election defeat. From confinement, he watched his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, unexpectedly finish ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first round.

Flavio secured 47% of the vote against Lula’s 45%, putting the two candidates into an October 25 runoff. The result strengthened Flavio’s chances of winning the presidency and highlighted the continued influence of the Bolsonaro political movement despite the former president’s legal troubles.

The family’s success extended beyond the presidential race. Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and son Carlos won Senate seats, while his brother Renato and youngest son Jair Renan secured seats in the lower house.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party also nearly doubled its representation in Brazil’s 81-seat Senate to 28 seats, marking the strongest Senate performance by a single party since the country returned to democracy in the 1980s.

The expanded conservative presence in Congress could revive efforts to grant Jair Bolsonaro amnesty. A Flavio Bolsonaro aide said the issue is expected to become a major congressional priority next year, although lawmakers could act sooner if Flavio wins the presidency.

Flavio’s campaign initially faced skepticism after his father selected him as the presidential candidate in December. Major center-right parties declined to join his ticket, prompting him to choose Liberal Party lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate.

Despite being largely unable to participate publicly in the campaign, Jair Bolsonaro remained a powerful political presence. An AI-generated avatar of the former president even endorsed Flavio during his campaign launch.

Lula now faces a difficult path to reelection. Political consultancy Think Policy estimates he would need about 62% of voters who backed other conservative candidates in the first round to defeat Flavio.

If Flavio wins, Liberal Party President Valdemar da Costa Neto has suggested Jair Bolsonaro could once again play a role in Brazil’s government.