Typical UK household energy bills in 2026-27 are forecast to exceed the inflation-adjusted level during the 2022-23 crisis, the Resolution Foundation said in its Oct. 29 analysis, despite measures in Chancellor John Healey’s budget.
The think tank’s estimate for a typical bill after support in 2026-27 is £1,750. Its inflation-adjusted reference for the 2022-23 energy shock is £1,685. The £1,750 figure is the Foundation’s estimate, not an Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) price-cap figure.
The Foundation calculates that support measures will average £158 for households in the poorest half this year and next. For the richest half, its estimate is £144. Chief Executive Ruth Curtice said support was “being spread far too thinly.”
A £100 Household Energy Payment is due to reach up to 20 million households in England from January 2027, with eligibility limited to council tax bands A to D. HM Treasury has allocated £2.6 billion for the scheme and says devolved governments will receive funding for comparable support. The Foundation says eligibility relies on property values from 1991. It estimates around one in eight households in the lower-income half live in higher bands and are expected to miss out. The government has also allocated £100 million for English local authorities to help households acutely affected by rising energy bills.
For qualifying domestic electricity in Great Britain, the government has extended the temporary 0% value-added tax rate through July 2027. HM Treasury expects the extension to lower the annual Ofgem price cap by about £50 in April 2027.
The government has asked Ofgem to remove domestic gas standing charges in Great Britain by the end of 2027 or as soon as possible afterward. Those costs would instead be collected through gas unit rates. HM Treasury says a typical household currently pays £108 a year in gas standing charges and acknowledges that some households may not make an automatic saving.
To help fund the payment, the government will temporarily raise the Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge from 3% to 6% from Jan. 1, 2027, through March 31, 2028. HM Treasury says details of electricity standing-charge reform are due next year.
