None of four US recession gauges flashed an alarm as of Nov. 10, with all four classified as clear in figures from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and US Labor Department.
The Treasury yield spread was positive, while the Sahm rule stood below its recession signal level. Unemployment and the four-week average of initial jobless claims both matched their lowest levels over the past year.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stood at 0.25 percentage point, or 25 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). The spread measures the difference between the yields on Treasury securities with those two maturities.
Zero marks the dividing line between a positive spread and an inverted curve. At the reference date, the 10-year yield exceeded the 2-year yield, placing the spread above that dividing line.
The curve had spent no days inverted over the preceding two years. Its positive reading and the absence of an inversion during that period accompanied its classification as normal.
The Sahm rule registered 0.00 percentage point, against a recession signal threshold above 0.5 percentage point. That left the reading half a percentage point below 0.5.
The rule compares the three-month average unemployment rate with its lowest three-month average over the previous year. Readings above 0.5 have historically coincided with the start of a recession.
The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, unchanged from its one-year low. The gap between the current rate and that low was therefore zero percentage points.
No separate alarm threshold was supplied for the unemployment rate. Its clear classification accompanied a reading at the annual low, rather than an increase from that level.
The four-week average of initial jobless claims stood at 195,000, also matching its one-year low. Initial claims count applications for unemployment benefits, while the four-week average combines readings across four weeks.
The claims average was 0% above its one-year low. No separate numerical alarm threshold was supplied for that gauge either, although it also carried a clear classification.
The two labour readings thus showed no increase against their respective annual lows. Those comparisons cover different measures: unemployment was expressed as a share, while claims were expressed as a count of applications.
All four gauges were clear at the Nov. 10 reference date. Their readings describe where the indicators stood, rather than establish whether a recession will occur or has been avoided.
