Reuters reported a 4.96% market quote for France’s 10-year OAT on Oct. 20, bringing borrowing costs into focus as a 2027 deficit goal and a planned Yellow Vest mobilization draw attention.
Reuters said the quote was up three basis points and that the yield reached 4.9937% in early October, its highest level since July 2002. The Associated Press also reported 4.96% on Oct. 20. The Banque de France listed a separate daily TEC10 reading of 4.928% for Oct. 20.
France’s 2027 budget materials target a public deficit of 5.0% of GDP; Agence France Trésor (AFT) estimates a €339.7 billion state financing requirement. It expects debt service to reach €72.9 billion that year, compared with €62.6 billion in 2026. AFT says maturing medium- and long-term debt is the main factor behind the higher financing need. The larger debt-service estimate adds to state budget costs, though AFT does not attribute the full increase to the Oct. 20 market move.
France had €3,595.5 billion in public debt, equal to 119.0% of GDP, at the end of June, the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported.
The Yellow Vest coordination group called for a Saturday, Oct. 24, mobilization it labels “Act II,” after demonstrations on Oct. 17. Its appeal cited concerns over prices, wages and public services.
ING senior rates strategist Benjamin Schroeder told Reuters that “any government will struggle” to carry out reforms and savings amid wider public resistance.
An Odoxa survey published Oct. 15 tested a first-round scenario with Édouard Philippe as the centrist candidate, based on fieldwork from Sept. 24 to Oct. 7. Among respondents who planned to vote and selected a candidate, Marine Le Pen had 37%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18% and Philippe 17%. The survey period ended before the Oct. 17 demonstrations.
AFT says its detailed 2027 financing program is due in December 2026.
