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Crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent both has set an important bottom this year. Brent is up 16% this year so far, while WTI is up 11.5%. In recent times both are struggling to gain further ground.
Brent is currently trading at $66.8/barrel, while WTI is trading at $59.4/barrel.
Traders should keep check of the following fundamental drivers to gauge further move in prices.
Crude stockpile and production in US -
Crude oil stocks continue to build up in US with domestic production being barred from exports. Crude oil domestic stocks stand more than 1 trillion barrel including 650 billion strategic reserve. Domestic producers are producing close 9.3 million barrels/day.
In recent time, active operating rigs have fallen, however that won't be enough to break the bears, steady drop in production is required. IF this stock piling in US keep moving up, supply glut would become an US phenomenon leading to sharp drop in WTI against Brent.
Imports and consumption -
Not all the crude produced in US are consumed domestically. US still imports crude from several nations in tune of 7 million barrels per day, largest from Canada and Saudi Arabia.
Main reasons for such pipeline structure that transfer's crude from storage to refineries. More over many of the US refineries take about heavy crudes instead of light sweet grade that also contributes to larger stock pile. A significant change in the above would be bullish for WTI crude in longer term.
Dollar -
Since WTI is quoted in $/barrel, stronger dollar since last year has been producing headwinds for WTI. Weaker dollar like in recent would be price supportive of WTI.
Domestic demand -
Report shows that with fall in oil prices and recovery in economic activities US consumers in 2015 would be driving record miles. So far higher demand led to higher gasoline prices benefiting the refiners, however if sustained would start reflecting in price of WTI.
