Further large falls seen in UK claimant count

The UK unemployment rate continues to fall apace, now standing at 5.7%. It should stay there in this month's release but the claimant count rate is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.4%. 

Indeed, the monthly fall in the claimant count appears to have reaccelerated to a trend of around 35k and could even hit 40k in February. 

Societe Generale notes...

We are being slightly conservative in predicting 35k. The rate of earnings growth should continue to rise - from 1.7% to 1.8% 3mth yoy for regular pay and from 2.1% to 2.2% for total pay including bonuses.