• AUD/USD traded slightly lower on Friday in subdued conditions as investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East..
• Market participants continue to seek clearer signals on the trajectory U.S.-Iran peace talks, with reports of diplomatic progress offset by persistent disagreements over key issues.
• In Australia, interest rate expectations remain firmly anchored, with futures pricing implying an 88.7% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at its June meeting.
• Looking ahead, domestic data will be closely watched. The April monthly CPI update due Wednesday will provide fresh insight into inflation persistence, while Q1 capital expenditure data on Thursday will help gauge business investment momentum both key inputs for assessing the RBA’s policy stance.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7159 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7191(SMA20).
• Support is seen at 0.7102(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 0.7062(50%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.7150 with stop loss of 0.7200 and target price of 0.7030
