Please be noted that the price of precious yellow metal has always been US rates sensitive commodity. And Fed is most likely to hike in this December meeting.

The gold price is down over 14% from the recent highs of 1384.88 levels in just last 5-months (refer monthly technical charts), and most likely to retest $1,050 after losing strong support at $1,200-$1,210 levels.

While MACD on weekly term evidences bearish crossover that is likely to drag prices down further.

More slumps likely ahead of Fed’s rate hiking hopes during Christmas as bears break the major support at 1208 & 1200 marks after bearish crossover on SMAs.

Fed hike before 2017 is also very much on cards. The underlying spot gold price is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, as a rise would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. The recent data flow is mixed, but Fed hike by year-end remains likely. Some softer news on core inflation and jobless claims.

Please observe the option skew monitor, Skew is the difference between the implied volatility of out-of-the-money (OTM) call options and put options, and here, as you can probably make out 1m positively skewed implies more demand for ITM calls or the OTM puts and a negative skew means the other way round, higher demand for ITM puts than OTM calls.

It can, therefore, be seen as an indicator of risk perception in that a highly negative skew in equities is indicative of a bearish view.

The chart shows z-score of the skew, i.e. the skew minus a rolling 2-year avg skew divided by a rolling two-year standard deviation of the skew.

A negative skew means investors favor buying protection, i.e. a short risk position. A negative skew for the gold reflects a short duration view, also a long risk position.

Additionally, as you can see delta risk reversals of XAUUSD are indicative of hedging participants in gold are more concerned about further slumps especially in next 1month’s timeframe. Rising negative flashes indicate active hedging sentiments for these downside risks.

Acknowledging the gradual increase in the implied volatility of XAUUSD and with the higher negative risk reversals in long run is justifiable when you have to anticipate forwards rates and observe the spot curve of this pair (see IVs, RR nutshell, Sensitivities, and compare with spot prices).