Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
New York Fed President John Williams Signals Rate Hold as Economy Seen Strong in 2026 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Bank of Japan Signals Cautious Path Toward Further Rate Hikes Amid Yen Weakness 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Please be noted that the price of precious yellow metal has always been US rates sensitive commodity. And Fed is most likely to hike in this December meeting.
The gold price is down over 14% from the recent highs of 1384.88 levels in just last 5-months (refer monthly technical charts), and most likely to retest $1,050 after losing strong support at $1,200-$1,210 levels.
While MACD on weekly term evidences bearish crossover that is likely to drag prices down further.
More slumps likely ahead of Fed’s rate hiking hopes during Christmas as bears break the major support at 1208 & 1200 marks after bearish crossover on SMAs.
Fed hike before 2017 is also very much on cards. The underlying spot gold price is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, as a rise would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. The recent data flow is mixed, but Fed hike by year-end remains likely. Some softer news on core inflation and jobless claims.
Please observe the option skew monitor, Skew is the difference between the implied volatility of out-of-the-money (OTM) call options and put options, and here, as you can probably make out 1m positively skewed implies more demand for ITM calls or the OTM puts and a negative skew means the other way round, higher demand for ITM puts than OTM calls.
It can, therefore, be seen as an indicator of risk perception in that a highly negative skew in equities is indicative of a bearish view.
The chart shows z-score of the skew, i.e. the skew minus a rolling 2-year avg skew divided by a rolling two-year standard deviation of the skew.
A negative skew means investors favor buying protection, i.e. a short risk position. A negative skew for the gold reflects a short duration view, also a long risk position.
Additionally, as you can see delta risk reversals of XAUUSD are indicative of hedging participants in gold are more concerned about further slumps especially in next 1month’s timeframe. Rising negative flashes indicate active hedging sentiments for these downside risks.
Acknowledging the gradual increase in the implied volatility of XAUUSD and with the higher negative risk reversals in long run is justifiable when you have to anticipate forwards rates and observe the spot curve of this pair (see IVs, RR nutshell, Sensitivities, and compare with spot prices).
